Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Canadian Monthly GDP Growth - April 30, 2013


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Canadian Monthly GDP Growth - April 30, 2013

The Canadian economy grew 0.3 per cent in February, building off of a similar gain in January.  At the industry level, economic growth was led by natural resource extraction activities but also received a boost from construction, forestry, and manufacturing.

Economic growth has been stronger than expected over the first two months of the first quarter. As a result., we have revised our first quarter GDP growth estimate upward from 1.5 per cent to between 1.5 and 2 per cent.

Friday, April 26, 2013

US Q1 Real GDP Growth - April 26, 2013



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US Q1 Real GDP Growth - April 26, 2013

The US economy grew 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, falling short of consensus expectations of 3 per cent. Most of the shortfall in growth was the result of an 11.5 per cent drop in defense spending, which led US government spending lower for the tenth time in the past eleven quarters.  On the positive side, consumer spending posted its largest increase in two years, expanding 3.2 per cent.  

It is worth noting that today's release is a preliminary estimate and will be revised in subsequent months. The recent trend has been upward revisions and so it is likely that the US economy actually grew at a slightly faster pace than initially estimated. That said, we do expect some weakness in the second and third quarter of this year due to further declines in government spending. However, that weakness should give way to stronger growth later in 2013 and into 2014 when we forecast the US economy will grow at a rate of above 3 per cent.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

How to be the Most Attractive Homebuyer



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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Canadian Retail Sales - April 23, 2013


BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Retail Sales 

Canadian retail sales rose for the second consecutive month, advancing 0.8 per cent in February. Higher sales were reported in 7 of the 11 retail sub-sectors. However, inflation adjusted sales were flat. Even with a relatively strong start to the year for the retail sector, we are still tracking first quarter real GDP growth in the Canadian economy at around 1.5 per cent

Retail sales in BC diverged from the national trend, falling 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis and declining 1 per cent year-over-year. We anticipate that BC retail sales will post below average growth in 2013, perhaps around 3 per cent but with some risk to the downside.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Consumer Price Inflation - April 19, 2013


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Consumer Price Inflation

Canadian consumer prices rose just 1 per cent in the 12 months to March, a slight deceleration from 1.2 per cent in February. The dip in inflation was primarily the result of lower gasoline prices, though inflation was broadly weak across all CPI components. Core inflation, which strips out the most volatile components of the CPI, such as food and energy prices, increased 1.4 per cent in March. Inflation in BC was also muted with consumer prices rising just 0.5 per cent on an annual basis.

Inflation continues to trend well below the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target rate, a trend we expect to continue through 2013 due to sluggish economic growth and muted inflationary pressure from wages. This low rate of inflation will keep the Bank of Canada sidelined through  at least the remainder of 2013 and likely for much of 2014.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Canadian Manufacturing Sales and US Housing Starts - April 16, 2013


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Canadian Manufacturing Sales and US Housing Starts 

Canadian manufacturing sales increased 2.6 per cent in February, the largest increase since July 2011. Manufacturing strength was broad based with sales rising in 14 of 21 manufacturing subsectors. In BC, manufacturing sales rose 0.3 on a monthly basis in February, but were 3.1 per cent higher year-over-year.

Encouraging news for BC's manufacturers of wood products this morning as US housing starts broke through the 1 million unit threshold (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate).  That is the highest pace of new home construction since June 2008 and a very encouraging sign that the US housing market is fully on the mend.

Monday, April 15, 2013

BC Home Sales Tick Higher in March


BC Home Sales Tick Higher in March

Vancouver, BC – April 15, 2013.  The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,661 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during March, up 6.6 per cent from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, but down 17.7 per cent compared to
March 2012. Total sales dollar volume was down 18.5 per cent to $3.06 billion. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $540,662, up 2 per cent from February, but down 1 per cent from a year ago.


"BC home sales in March posted the largest seasonally adjusted month-to-month increase since January 2011,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, homes sale per capita continue to remain near a cyclical low, suggesting that pent-up demand may be beginning to grow in the housing market."

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 22.1 per cent to $7.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 18.8 per cent to 13,572 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 4.0 per cent at $530,435.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Canadian Housing Starts - April 9, 2013


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Canadian Housing Starts - April 9, 2013

Canadian home-builders broke ground on 184,208 new units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in March, a slight increase from February's 183,207 starts. However, new home construction continues to trend lower from last year's highs. On a year-over-year basis, housing starts were down 15.5 per cent.

New home construction in BC urban centers rose 13 per cent month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 24,400 units. On a year-over-year basis, total starts were 18 per cent higher than March 2012. Single-detached starts were 16 per cent lower over last year, while multiples bounced back from a steep year-over-year-decline in February, rising 33 per cent compared to March 2012. The first quarter of 2013 saw a 13 per cent decline in total housing starts compared to the first quarter of 2012.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC, in the Vancouver CMA total starts rose 35 per cent year-over-year due to a 42 per cent jump in multiple starts. Single-detached starts were also up by 2 per cent..  New home construction in the Abbotsford CMA continued to recover from a difficult 2012, rising 57 compared to March 2012. Conversely, housing starts in the Victoria and Kelowna CMAs declined year-over-year in March, falling by 10 per cent and 27 per cent respectively.

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Friday, April 5, 2013

Canadian and US Employment - April 5, 2013


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Canadian and US Employment - April 5, 2013

Canadian employment declined by 55,000 in March, erasing a similar sized increase in February. All of March's losses were in full-time employment.  In spite of the decline, employment remains 1.2 per cent higher than this time last year.  However, the national unemployment rate rose 0.2 points to 7.2 per cent.

The BC labour market shed almost 15,000 jobs in March, including 22,400 full-time jobs while part-time employment ticked 7,500 higher. The provincial unemployment rate spiked 0.7 points higher to 7 per cent. Despite the sharp decline in March, total employment in BC remains 1 per cent higher than March 2012.

In the US, employment growth tailed off significantly from very strong recent months as employers expanded payrolls by just 88,000. The US unemployment rate fell to 7.6 per cent.