Canadian Monthly GDP - October 31, 2013

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The Canadian economy expanded 0.3 per cent in August, building off of 0.6 per cent growth in July. Nearly all major industrial sectors registered growth in August, led by oil and gas and major Canadian service sectors like retail and wholesale trade. 

With today's release, we now have two months of GDP data for the third quarter. Our quarterly tracking estimate is currently pointing at growth north of 2 per cent and, barring substantial underperformance in September, possibly as strong as 2.5 per cent which would well exceed the Bank of Canada's recent forecast of 1.8 per cent. However, stronger third quarter growth has been somewhat artificially boosted by a recovery of output lost due to summer flooding in Alberta and labour disruptions in Quebec. Therefore it is unlikely that growth is accelerating beyond what the Bank of Canada is currently factoring into its interest rate decisions. 

Canadian Retail Sales and US Employment - October 22, 2013

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Canadian retail sales x`increased again in August, growing 0.2 per

cent largely on higher sales at food and beverage stores. Overall, gains were reported in 6 of 11 retail sub-sectors. Given today's data release, we expect third quarter Canadian real GDP to record growth of about 2 per cent. 

Retail sales in BC were up 0.6 per cent month-over-month, only the fourth monthly increase in retail sales recorded this year. Compared to August 2012, sales were up 2.8 per cent. Year-to-date, BC retail sales are 0.8 per cent higher than in 2012. 

In the United States, the end of the government shut-down brings with it some long delayed data including this morning's job report for September. US payrolls expanded by 148,000 jobs while the unemployment rate edged slightly lower to 7.2 per cent. While job growth remains steady, it is somewhat worrying that a once robust trend of 200,000 new jobs in the first quarter of this year has fallen to just 143,000 in the third quarter. 

BCREA 2013 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast

Housing Market Rebound to Extend Into 2014


Vancouver, BC – October 22, 2013.The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its

2013 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 6 per cent to 71,700 units this year, before increasing a further 6.3 per cent to 76,200 units in 2014. The five-year average is 74,600 unit sales, while the ten-year average is 86,800 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

"Consumer demand has bounced back after waning for most of 2012,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “With higher interest rates on the horizon, many potential homebuyers are choosing to lock in a mortgage sooner rather than later. However, rather than signaling a return to frenetic home buying activity and accelerating markets, consumer demand is simply transitioning back to its long term average."

The average MLS® residential price forecast for the province has been revised upward from a 3.3 to a 4.3 per cent increase to $537,100 this year, as a result of stronger than expected market conditions in Vancouver. The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to increase a further 2.1 per cent to 548,200 in 2014.

Canadian Consumer Price Inflation - October 18, 2013

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Canadian consumer prices rose 1.1 per cent in the twelve months to September, matching the rise in August. Core inflation, which strips out the most volatile components of the CPI, such as food and energy prices, increased 1.3 per cent in September. Consumer prices in BC were unchanged in September after declining 0.1 per cent in August.

Canadian inflation continues to run well below the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target. An expected acceleration in economic growth in 2014 should put inflation back on a glide path to 2 per cent next year, though we expect the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines until late 2014 or early 2015.

BCREA Housing Market Update (October 2013)

Canadian Manufacturing Sales - October 16, 2013

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Canadian manufacturing sales posted a modest decline in August, falling 0.2 per cent month-over-month.  Sales were lower in 11 of 21 manufacturing sectors. 

In BC, manufacturing sales rose 0.8 per cent from July but were 0.3 per cent lower than August 2012.  Year-to-date, BC manufacturing sales are 1.2 per cent higher than last year, though much of the overall gain is due to a 28 per cent rise in sales of manufactured wood products. Other large manufacturing sectors such as food products, pulp and paper and mineral products have recorded year-to-date declines in sales. 

BC Home Sales on Upward Trajectory

Vancouver, BC – October 15, 2013.  The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that

a total of 6,498 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during September, up 43.2 per cent from September 2012. Total sales dollar volume was 55.7 per cent higher than a year ago at $3.49 billion. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $537,458, up 8.8 per cent from September 2012.


"Consumer demand for housing in September was the strongest in four years,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “After declining for most of 2012, BC home sales have increased now for seven consecutive months."

"While a return to a more normal level of demand is good news for buyers and sellers, relatively weak economic conditions and muted provincial job growth will likely limit continued acceleration of home sales over the next few quarters,” added Muir.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 5.7 per cent to $30 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales were up 3.1 per cent to 56,347 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 2.6 per cent at $532,745.

Canadian Employment - October 11, 2013

Following significant ups and downs over the summer, Canadian employment was little changed in

September. However, a decline in youths looking for work pushed the Canadian unemployment lower by 0.2 points to 6.9 per cent, the lowest rate in five years. Total employment has grown 1.2 per cent in the past 12 months.

In BC, employment fell by 5,400 jobs as a decline in part-time work of 8,200 was only partially offset by higher full-time employment. The provincial unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to 6.7 per cent. Year-to-date, employment growth in BC is flat while the level of total employment in September is 0.7 per cent lower than in 2012.

Canadian Housing Starts - October 8, 2013

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Canadian housing starts increased 5 per cent in September to

193,627 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  The trend in Canadian new home construction edged up slightly to 188,440 units SAAR over the past six months, a rate that is roughly in-line with Canadian household formations.  On a year-over-year basis, housing starts were down 11 per cent.

New home construction in BC urban centres bounced back from a sizable decline in August, rising 17 per cent to 29,633 units SAAR . On a year-over-year basis, total starts were 10 per cent higher than September 2012. Single-detached starts were up 20 per cent over last year, while multiple starts rose 6 per cent. Through the first three quarters of the year, BC housing starts are down 5 per cent compared to 2012.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC, total starts in the Vancouver CMA were up 1 per cent year-over-year at 1,731 units in September. Single family starts rose 15 per cent while multiples fell 2 per cent. Through the first three quarters of the year, Vancouver CMA housing starts are down 6 per cent. In the Victoria CMA, total starts were up 40 per cent compared to September 2012, due to double digit growth in both single and multiple starts. Year-to-date, VIctoria CMA housing starts are 8 per cent lower than 2012. New home construction in the Kelowna CMA fell 35 per cent year-over-year in September. The decline was the result of a steep drop in multiple unit starts compared to 2012. Year-to-date, Kelowna CMA housing starts are down 1 per cent compared to 2012. Single detached starts were 30 per cent higher.  In the Abbotsford-MIssion CMA, starts were up 400 per cent at 130 total units compared to just 26 in September 2012. Year-to-date, total housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA have risen 91 per cent.

Canadian Building Permits - October 7, 2013

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Canadian building permits fell 21.2 per cent in August to $6.3

billion, reversing July's 20 per cent gain.  Lower building permits were the result of a decline in construction intentions in both the residential and non-residential sectors.

BC was one of only two provinces to register an increase in building permits in August. The total value of building permits issued in the province rose 2.9 per cent from July as residential building permits rose 12.8 per cent while non-residential permits declined 13  per cent. Year-over-year, construction intentions in August were about 1 per cent lower than in 2012. On the residential side, the total number of units permitted increased from 2,352 units in July to a 2,666 in August. A decline in permits for single-family units was offset by a substantial jump in permits for apartment units from 1,092 to 1,478. 

Building permit activity across BC's four major census metropolitan areas (CMA) was mostly positive in August. In the Vancouver CMA, permits rose 13.6 per cent on a monthly basis but were 2.6 per cent lower year-over-year. Construction intentions in the Victoria CMA broke a two month trend of double digit increases, declining 26.2 per cent on a monthly basis but were 10 per cent higher year over year. in the Kelowna CMA, permits posted another large increase, rising 79.9 per cent from June and  doubled permit values recorded in August 2012. Finally, in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA, building permits increased 2.1 per cent month-over-month and 11 per cent year-over-year.