Canadian Retail Sales - March 21, 2013

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Retail Sales - March 21, 2013

Canadian retail sales rose 1 per cent in January, with gains reported in 7 out of 11 retail subsectors. Adjusting for inflation, retail sales were roughly flat.

With today's retail sales release, we have a full month of data for our quarterly Canadian GDP tracking estimate. While there isn't much we can tell from just one month, there are signs that real GDP growth has picked up from the sub-1 per cent level that prevailed in the second half of last year. That said, growth is still likely to come in at modest 1 to 1.5 per cent in the first quarter.

Retail sales in BC rose 1 per cent over December but were unchanged year-over-year. We anticipate that, in spite of a stronger labour market, BC retail sales will continue to grow well below trend at between 3 and 4 per cent in 2013. This would mark the third consecutive year of weak sales growth.