BC Commercial Leading Indicator Points to Stability in
Second Half of 2013
Vancouver, BC – May 28, 2013. The British Columbia Real
Estate Association (BCREA) Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) bounced back in
the first quarter of 2013, rising 0.4 points and partially offsetting the
decline in the fourth quarter of 2012. The index is currently sitting at 112.2.
On a year-over-year basis, the CLI is 0.2 per cent above the first quarter of
2012.
The increase in the index was the result of stronger
economic activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector due to a large
increase in wood products output. Momentum in Canadian real estate investment
trusts (REIT) returns and narrower risk spreads translated to a positive
contribution in the index’s financial component. The employment component of
the index, however, continues to lag due to a sharp slowdown in manufacturing
employment.
"The increase in the CLI following last quarter’s
decline has meant an overall flattening in the index’s underlying trend,” said
Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “This indicates that the slowdown signaled
previously for the first half of this year will likely give way to modest
growth in the second half of 2013."
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